Topic:

Pandemic Resurgence Slows Recovery in Asia: IMF’s Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook

Speakers:

Dr Shanaka Jayanath (Jay) Peiris
Division Chief of Regional Studies, Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund

Dr Elif Arbatli Saxegaard
Senior Economist, Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund

Dr Pragyan Deb
Economist of Regional Surveillance Division and
Desk Economist for Myanmar, Asia and Pacific Department,
International Monetary Fund

Dr Phakawa Jeasakul
International Monetary Fund Resident Representative in Hong Kong SAR

Date & Time:

Friday, 22 October 2021
10:00 am – 11:30 am
(Singapore Time | GMT+8)

Video recording:

Please visit EAI’s YouTube channel for a video recording of the seminar.

Abstract:

The pandemic has taken a turn for the worse in Asia since the Spring and growth outlook has been downgraded. Asia was slow to vaccinate because of successful containment early in the pandemic and vulnerable to the spread of the Delta variant, though the pace of vaccinations has now accelerated markedly. While Asia Pacific remains the fastest growing region in the world, the divergence between Asian advanced economies and emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) is deepening in reflection of vaccination coverage and policy support, and medium-term output levels in EMDEs are expected to remain below pre-pandemic trends. Risks are tilted to the downside, mainly due to uncertain pandemic dynamics, vaccine efficacy against virus variants, and supply chain disruptions and potential global financial spillovers from US monetary normalisation in the presence of domestic financial vulnerabilities. Threat of natural disasters continue to weigh on low income countries.  Policies must be responsive to the changed context, such as redoubling efforts to accelerate vaccinations, continuing macroeconomic support (policy space permitting) but with improved targeting, and accelerating reforms to develop new growth drivers.

About the Speakers:

Shanaka Jayanath (Jay) Peiris is the IMF Asia and Pacific Department’s (APD) Division Chief of Regional Studies in charge of the Regional Economic Outlook publication. During the last 20 years at the IMF, he was the Mission Chief for Myanmar and Deputy Division covering ASEAN macro financial surveillance and subregional issues for APD. Much earlier, he was IMF’s Resident Representative in the Philippines, Senior Economist in APD on Indonesia and the Philippines and Mission Chief to Pacific Island countries, as well as in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department working on South and Northeast Asia, Financial Sector Assessment Programmes, and multilateral surveillance. He has also worked on Eastern and Southern Africa. Dr Peiris has published academic journal papers on a wide range of topics including inclusive growth, monetary policy and inflation, bond markets, banking and finance, and macroeconomic models for emerging markets, and co-edited books on ASEAN and Sub-Saharan Africa. Dr Peiris holds PhD in Economics from Oxford University as a British Chevening Scholar.

Elif Arbatli Saxegaard is Senior Economist of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. Previously she was Senior Adviser at Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, in the Financial Stability Department.  She also held positions in different departments of the IMF and at the Bank of Canada. Her recent areas of interest and research include macro-financial linkages, systemic risk monitoring and effects of macroprudential policies. Dr Saxegaard holds a PhD in Economics from Johns Hopkins University.

Pragyan Deb is Economist in the IMF Asia and Pacific Department’s Regional Surveillance Division and the Desk Economist for Myanmar. Prior to this, he was with the IMF’s Strategy, Policy and Review Department working on IMF lending and surveillance policies, emerging market issues, macro-financial spillovers and policy frameworks to address external shocks. Dr Deb was also part of the team working on the IMF’s financing arrangement with Mongolia. He has done surveillance work on various countries, including China, Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Saudi Arabia and contributed analytical chapters on multilateral surveillance in the Global Financial Stability Report and Regional Economic Outlooks. Before joining the IMF, he worked on macroprudential policy and banking regulation at the Bank of England. He holds a PhD in Finance from the London School of Economics.

Phakawa Jeasakul is the IMF Resident Representative in Hong Kong SAR. He is responsible for monitoring financial market development in the Asia-Pacific region, assessing macrofinancial stability issues in China and Hong Kong SAR, and contributing to the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report. Previously, he was Senior Economist in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the IMF. He has worked extensively on topics such as stress testing and systemic risk analysis, macroprudential oversight and macrofinancial linkages. He also led the 2019 Canada Financial Sector Assessment Programme (FSAP) as Deputy Mission Chief, and worked on several other country surveillance assignments, including Brazil, Indonesia, Korea, Russia, Spain and the United Kingdom. In 2015, he was Visiting Research Scholar at the People’s Bank of China for two months. He joined the IMF in 2010 in the European Department, focusing on regional surveillance in emerging Europe. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California – Berkeley, and a B.A. with summa cum laude from Williams College.