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No. 97

The United States, Europe and China: Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook

Alfred SCHIPKE, Jason FURMAN, Moritz SCHULARICK, HUANG Yiping and GUO Kai, 21 January 2026

Across the United States, Europe, and China, the macroeconomic outlook heading into 2026 is characterised by elevated uncertainty alongside continued resilience. Policy and geopolitical risks remain present across regions and continue to weigh on confidence and medium-term prospects. At the same time, economic activity has so far proven more robust than anticipated, with growth holding up and inflation pressures generally easing. The key question going forward is whether sustained policy implementation and structural adjustments can translate this near-term resilience into more durable and balanced growth, while avoiding a further fragmentation of the global economy.

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