Speakers:

Prof Xu Qiyuan, Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and Prof Su Qingyi, Head of International Trade Department, IWEP, CASS

Date & Time:

Tuesday, 22 April 2025
3:30 pm – 5:00 pm (Singapore Time)

Venue:

Zoom

Registration is required:

Please click on: https://nus-sg.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_sQqO92jZTN-sRcTsjNdcEg

Synopsis:

The Trump administration’s frequent use of tariffs has made assessing their effects particularly crucial. This presentation aims to discuss the different quantitative models for simulating trade policies, introduce the model used by Laboratory of World Economic Forecasting and Policy Simulation at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and provide a quantitative evaluation of the US imposition of reciprocal tariffs. Current models for assessing the effects of trade policies include Computable General Equilibrium models, structural trade models, elasticity estimation methods and input-output analysis, each with distinct strengths and weaknesses. The IWEP trade team employs a structural trade model to build a user-friendly simulation system for policy analysis. Using the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs as a case study, this presentation analyses the economic shocks caused by such tariffs.

About the Speakers:

Prof Xu Qiyuan is Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). He focuses on the study of Sino-US economic and trade relations and China’s macroeconomy. He has published over 80 academic papers in scholarly journals, authored 10 academic monographs, and translated 2 works. Additionally, he has written more than 200 commentary articles for mainstream financial media both in Financial Times, Project Syndicate and in Chinese media outlets.

Prof Su Qingyi is a Senior Fellow and Head of the Department of International Trade, Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). His research field focuses on the theory and policy of international trade, with particular emphasis on global value chains, free trade agreements and China-US trade relations. Prof Su publishes dozens of papers in peer reviewed journals, including Chinese top journal, Economic Research Journal and SSCI journal, China & World Economy. He is the author of Global Value Chains: Measurement and Application and The Reform of the World Trading System.